Scenario development is an essential tool for long-term strategy and risk management. By considering a range of possible futures it also possible to identify a preferred future establishing a vision and defining in a “backcasting” exercise how and with to reach it. One of the key benefits of scenario development is that it encourages long-term strategic planning, less focused on short-term goals and immediate challenges, often neglecting the bigger picture. This is particularly valuable of the current megatrends as in climate change, demographic shifts or digital transitions, where long-term shifts can have profound impacts. To build effective scenarios, structured methodologies allow to explore alternative futures systematically. The ultimate goal is not to predict the future with certainty, but to be better prepared for whatever future emerges. In this course, we aim to deepen our understanding of the fundamental principles of scenario development, explore the key tools and methods for analyzing alternative futures, and apply these techniques to real-world issues. This course will illustrate the different approaches to scenario making, propose a methodology for explorative scenarios, and involve students in exercises, testing the methods on case studies proposed by them. The leaning outcome will be the knowledge of methodologies of scenario-making and the ability to adapt the method to a case study.

Guest Lecture: Isabel Loupa Ramos is Associate Professor at University of Lisbon ICT and member of the Research Centre CiTUA Territory Urbanism and Architecture. She teaches Urban and environmental Planning, Participatory design in Planning. Among her research interests and activities, the development of scenarios in defining planning objectives, since her doctoral thesis. Several applied experiences for territorial authorities. Participant in several EU Project, Horizon, MSCA, EM. https://fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/homepage/ist14465 Approaches to scenario making: “What will happen?”, “What could happen?”, and “What should happen?”. The procedural dimension of constructing alternative futures Exploratory Scenario Planning. Case studies The JRC Method Scenario-building exercises Burt, G. (2023). Evolution of scenario planning: Theory and practice from disorder to order. De Gruyter. Elsawah, S., Hamilton, S. H., Jakeman, A. J., Rothman, D., Schweizer, V., Trutnevyte, E., ... & van Delden, H. (2020). Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: a review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making. Science of the Total Environment, 729, 138393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138393 Ramos, I. L. (2010). Exploratory landscape scenarios in the formulation of ‘landscape quality objectives. Futures, 42(7), 682-692. Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency Doubleday, New York. Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester. Van Notten, P., Sleegers, A.M., van Asselt, M. (2005) The future shocks: on discontinuity and scenario development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72:175–194.

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