|Politecnico di Torino|
|Academic Year 2016/17|
Models and scenarios for energy planning
Master of science-level of the Bologna process in Petroleum Engineering - Torino
The course is inter-disciplinary in nature, being culturally located at the crossroads between economics and engineering.
The course focuses on the modeling of the dynamics of energy markets on medium-long terms under a complex set of constraints. This modeling is crucial today for the planning of sustainable energy strategies at regional, national and international level.
The course starts presenting the output of the World Energy Model (WEM), presented yearly in the World Energy Outlook (WEO) by the International Energy Agency (IEA), consisting mainly of emissions to the environment (CO2) and investments. These follow from a set of assumptions (e.g., governments policies related to energy sector, technological advances, economic and population growth) made in input and collected in so-called scenarios, which are also carefully discussed.
The different possible approaches to the complex challenge of the development of a model connecting the input to the output are then presented: top-down vs. bottom-up ("engineering-economic" models), partial vs. global equilibrium models, with particular attention devoted to the bottom-up, partial equilibrium MARKAL - TIMES family of models. The WEM is considered in depth, highlighting the assumptions in input, the interconnections between energy demand, energy supply and technologies. An introduction to the mathematical methods adopted (e.g. linear and non-linear programming, stochastic and Monte Carlo methods), which are at the core of the solution of this constrained optimization problem is provided, as well as an assessment of the propagation of uncertainties from input to output.
The output of the WEM is analyzed, considering energy balances at regional level and also specific energy markets (e.g, the oil market). The students are grouped in small teams and asked to report on the latter.
In parallel with these theoretical developments, the students have the opportunity to learn with a hands-on approach the use of a freeware for energy modeling, called EnergyPLAN, and to apply it to the analysis of a case study.
Expected learning outcomes
Through this course the students are expected to acquire a good knowledge of:
• The rationale behind energy models at local/regional/world level,
• The input needed for energy models (MARKAL – TIMES and in particular the WEM), and the relative output,
• The main algorithms adopted for the solution of the constrained optimization problems hidden in the models,
• The main scenarios considered in the WEO,
• The outlook of the main energy markets for the next few decades.
The students will also acquire the ability:
• To use the software EnergyPLAN for the analysis of a regional energy balance,
• To work in a small team, analyzing the outlook of specific energy markets and taking advantage of the exchange of ideas with their peers,
To present the output of the team work to the rest of the class and to discuss it interactively.
Prerequisites / Assumed knowledge
A background on the fundamentals of all major energy technologies (oil, coal, gas, renewables, nuclear, ...) is taken for granted.
1. Introduction and description of the course/content (3 h)
2. The IEA World Energy Outlook: (4.5 h)
• Scope and methodology,
• Global energy trends to 2040.
3. Approaches to energy modeling (12h)
• Top-down vs. bottom-up models,
• Micro, meso and macro-scale energy models
• Aggregate Demand – Aggregate Supply macro-economy model, global vs. partial equilibrium models
• Model "generators": MARKAL, TIMES,
• Algorithms for energy model: Linear and non-linear programming.
4. Aim and structure of the World Energy Model (6 h)
• Region choice,
• Assumptions (inputs) for the definition of the different scenarios
- CO2 and electricity prices (including subsidies),
- Government policies related to the energy sector ,
- Technologies, including the assessment of their future potential (energy efficiency, CCS, CSP, nuclear, hybrid/electric vehicles, ...),
- Socioeconomic drivers (demography, GDP, ...),
• Ingredients for a Regional Energy balance
- Energy demand (industry/transport/building sectors) ,
- Energy transformations: main technologies for power generation and heat plants ( coal / gas / renewables / nuclear), oil refining and trade,
- Coal/oil/gas/biomass supply,
• Outputs: CO2 emissions and investments/prices.
5. Definition of the main scenarios (6h)
• Current policies scenario,
• New policies scenario,
• 450 scenario.
6. Examples of regional energy outlooks (Brazil, Iraq, Russia) (3h).
7. Outlook of the main energy markets: oil, coal, natural gas, power sector, renewables [supported by presentations from student teams] (15h).
8. Panel discussion with experts from IEA, ENEL and ENI on the future of energy modeling (3h).
The course will address the theoretical part in formal lectures.
22.5 hours of computational lab are also foreseen, for a subset of which the students will individually work on PCs, using software like, e.g., EnergyPLAN, to address a case study assigned by the teacher.
5 hours will be devoted to the analysis of, and preparation of a presentation on, a selected WEO outlook chapter. This work will be performed by small teams made of 3-4 students each.
Texts, readings, handouts and other learning resources
Selected chapters from:
- World Energy Outlook 2014, IEA 2014
- World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA 2013
- World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA 2012
- World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA 2011
- R. Loulou, G. Goldstein, K. Noble, Documentation for the MARKAL family of models, Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme 2004.
- R. Loulou et al, Documentation for the TIMES model – PART 1 - Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme 2005.
- World Energy Model Documentation – 2013 Version., OCSE/IEA 2013
- World Energy Model Methodology and Assumptions, OCSE/IEA 2011
- H. Lund, EnergyPLAN – Advances Energy Systems Analysis Computer Model – Documentation Version 10.0, Aalborg University, Denmark, August 2012.
Assessment and grading criteria
The final grade is obtained combining three different assessments:
1. Written exam (50% of the final grade), including questions on different theoretical topics addressed during the lectures,
2. Preparation of a short report on the analysis of a regional energy balance with EnergyPLAN, to be submitted at the moment of the written exam (25% of the final grade),
Presentation of the team work to the rest of the class and discussion on a selected WEO outlook chapter (25% of the final grade).
Programma definitivo per l'A.A.2016/17