


Politecnico di Torino  
Anno Accademico 2017/18  
01SDLRW Risk Analysis in Civil Engineering 

Dottorato di ricerca in Ingegneria Civile E Ambientale  Torino 





Presentazione
PERIODO: DICEMBRE 2017
Il corso sarà tenuto dal prof. Adrian ROSRIGUEZMAREK della Virginia Tech The goals of this course are to introduce basic concepts of structural reliability, geostatistics and risk analysis; and apply these concepts to problems in geotechnical engineering. Specific course objectives are listed below: 1. Demonstrate an understanding of probability theory. 2. Calculate the main statistics of random variables. 3. Demonstrate familiarity with common uni and multidimensional distributions. 4. Understand the information provided by factor of safety, reliability index, and probability of failure. 5. Understand First Order reliability methods 6. Understand concepts of risk analysis and risk management 7. Understand the concepts involved in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and PerformanceBased Earthquake Engineering and perform such analysis for simplified situations. 
Programma
Lecture Topics:
1. General concepts in probability theory and statistics a. Definition of Risk and Hazard b. Probability Theory c. Random variables • Types of random variables • Probability distribution functions d. Multidimensional random variables e. Functions of random variables 2. Spatially variable random variables a. Random Fields – basic concepts b. Geostatistics 3. Probability of failure in geotechnical design a. Concept of reliability • First Order Reliability Methods • System Reliability b. Simulation methods 4. Risk analysis and management a. Fault tree analysis b. Event tree analysis 5. Application in seismic risk analysis a. Performance Based Earthquake Engineering b. Seismic Hazard Analysis Note: throughout the semester we will be using examples from Geotechnical Engineering to illustrate basic concepts. Course Schedule: Monday, December 4th: 10:00 – 13:00  Introductory concepts.  Basic elements of probability.  Risk analysis through event trees and decision trees. Monday, December 4th: 15:0018:00  Function of Random Variables.  Vectors of Random Variables. Tuesday, December 5th: 9:00 – 12:00  Basic reliability concepts: First ordersecond moment approximations.  Methods to estimate the reliability index. Tuesday, December 5th: 15:00 – 18.00  Monte Carlo Methods.  Worked example: Bearing Capacity analyses. Wednesday, December 6th: 9:00 – 12:00  Introduction to Seismic Hazard Analysis: ground motion characterization and source characterization.  Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis.  Performancebased earthquake engineering. Wednesday, December 6th: 14:0017:00  Spatially variable random variables: random fields and stochastic processes. Il corso inizierà il 4 dicembre presso l’Aula Albenga del DISEG alle ore 10 e si terrà in tre giorni consecutivi per 6h al giorno . 
Orario delle lezioni 
Statistiche superamento esami 
